Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
