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It was 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?

That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.

• The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.